Can Social Media Predict the 2012 Election?
There is no doubt in my mind that social media has become an integral part of our every day lives. You connect with friends on Facebook, talk about what you ate on Twitter and post pictures of places you want to visit on Pinterest. However, it’s interesting to look at how social media has been shaping the world outside of our own personal lives. Case and point: the 2012 presidential elections.
Elections and social media aren’t exactly a new phenomena. It had a very important role in the 2008 presidential elections. In Socialnomics by Erik Qualman, he compared John F. Kennedy and Barack Obama. JFK wouldn’t have been able to win the election if it wasn’t for the introduction of television - in televised debates he won the audience with his charisma while Nixon looked like a sweaty old fool. Without TV, JFK may not have become president.
By the time Barack Obama was elected, he had 3.1 million fans on Facebook compared to John McCain’s 614,000. Did social media predict the elections? Maybe, maybe not, but it’s an interesting thought. Another thing that Obama did well in 2008 was asking for donations from his fans. Presidential hopefuls have always relied on huge donations by powerful figures with deep pockets. Obama turned that idea on its head by asking for small donations of around $10 from each fan. It’s not hard to see how that money would add up.
Now, the 2012 presidential elections are upon us. A few primaries have already happened, and there has been no shortage of talk on the subject through social media channels. With the most recent Republican primary in South Carolina, The American Research Group measured Twitter sentiment towards the candidates compared to their poll numbers. As you probably know (unless you live under a rock) Newt Gingrich won the South Carolina primaries. Not only did he have a surge in the polls, but he also had a surge on Twitter. Mitt Romney’s Twitter sentiment was down compared to the polls, while the opposite was true for Ron Paul.
This year, it seems like the Republican presidential hopefuls have a lot to be concerned about. Of all of them, Ron Paul has the highest sentiment on Twitter, yet he has lower polls than the rest and often gets less media coverage. When there were still 7 Republican candidates, for 5 of them had a 2 to 1 ratio of negative to positive comments on Twitter, if not more. These stats are also mirrored in the amount of engagement they receive from followers. According to Dan Zarella, Ron Paul has less Twitter followers compared to New Gingrich and Mitt Romney, but he has the highest number of retweets. He also has the highest percentage of retweets to followers. Mitt Romney has managed to garner the most mentions per hour and followers per mention.
Since Obama was able to leverage social media so well during the 2008 elections, it’s interesting to see how he’s continuing to use social channels to get re-elected. I remember back in October, it was a huge deal that Obama got a Tumblr and started to use it as another way to connect with fans. Most recently, a video of him singing Al Green’s “Let’s Stay Together” went viral, and they made an official Obama ringtone with the clip.
Although there is no definitive way to find out if social media can predict elections, it’s a huge factor for candidate’s in today’s connected environment. With the 2010 midterm elections, Facebook came out and said that Page popularity was a good predictor of election results. They said, “The Facebook political team’s initial snapshot of 98 House races shows that 74% of candidates with the most Facebook fans won their contests. In the Senate, our initial snapshot of 19 races shows that 81% of candidates with the most Facebook fans won their contests.” It’s becoming clear that there is some correlation between social media and election results.
Do you think social media is a predictor of elections? What candidate do you think will win the upcoming election, based on their social media fans and followers? Let us know in the comments!
By the time Barack Obama was elected, he had 3.1 million fans on Facebook compared to John McCain’s 614,000. Did social media predict the elections? Maybe, maybe not, but it’s an interesting thought. Another thing that Obama did well in 2008 was asking for donations from his fans. Presidential hopefuls have always relied on huge donations by powerful figures with deep pockets. Obama turned that idea on its head by asking for small donations of around $10 from each fan. It’s not hard to see how that money would add up.
Now, the 2012 presidential elections are upon us. A few primaries have already happened, and there has been no shortage of talk on the subject through social media channels. With the most recent Republican primary in South Carolina, The American Research Group measured Twitter sentiment towards the candidates compared to their poll numbers. As you probably know (unless you live under a rock) Newt Gingrich won the South Carolina primaries. Not only did he have a surge in the polls, but he also had a surge on Twitter. Mitt Romney’s Twitter sentiment was down compared to the polls, while the opposite was true for Ron Paul.
This year, it seems like the Republican presidential hopefuls have a lot to be concerned about. Of all of them, Ron Paul has the highest sentiment on Twitter, yet he has lower polls than the rest and often gets less media coverage. When there were still 7 Republican candidates, for 5 of them had a 2 to 1 ratio of negative to positive comments on Twitter, if not more. These stats are also mirrored in the amount of engagement they receive from followers. According to Dan Zarella, Ron Paul has less Twitter followers compared to New Gingrich and Mitt Romney, but he has the highest number of retweets. He also has the highest percentage of retweets to followers. Mitt Romney has managed to garner the most mentions per hour and followers per mention.
Since Obama was able to leverage social media so well during the 2008 elections, it’s interesting to see how he’s continuing to use social channels to get re-elected. I remember back in October, it was a huge deal that Obama got a Tumblr and started to use it as another way to connect with fans. Most recently, a video of him singing Al Green’s “Let’s Stay Together” went viral, and they made an official Obama ringtone with the clip.
Although there is no definitive way to find out if social media can predict elections, it’s a huge factor for candidate’s in today’s connected environment. With the 2010 midterm elections, Facebook came out and said that Page popularity was a good predictor of election results. They said, “The Facebook political team’s initial snapshot of 98 House races shows that 74% of candidates with the most Facebook fans won their contests. In the Senate, our initial snapshot of 19 races shows that 81% of candidates with the most Facebook fans won their contests.” It’s becoming clear that there is some correlation between social media and election results.
Do you think social media is a predictor of elections? What candidate do you think will win the upcoming election, based on their social media fans and followers? Let us know in the comments!
4 weeks ago
